Reasoning Tools
A required condition does not work in reverse
A fictional workshop states: every confirmed booking has a valid pass. The record says Nia has a confirmed booking and Sol has a valid pass. No other booking information is supplied for Sol. Treat the rule as a premise of this exercise. The question is what follows from these statements, rather than whether any real workshop uses this policy.
01
Apply the statement in its supplied direction
The rule connects confirmed booking to valid pass. Because Nia has a confirmed booking, the rule supports concluding that Nia has a valid pass. Write that link explicitly: confirmed booking implies valid pass; Nia has the first condition; therefore Nia has the second. The example does not require a probability estimate or a search for real booking records. It asks whether the conclusion follows from the stated premises. If those premises were later revised, the record would need to show which conclusion depended on them.
02
Do not reverse the implication for Sol
Sol having a valid pass does not establish a confirmed booking. The rule says a pass is required for a confirmed booking, not that every pass holder has booked. A possible case consistent with the rule is someone who obtained a pass but has not selected a session. This counterexample shows why the reversed inference is unsupported. Sol may have a booking or may not; the supplied statements leave that unresolved. Recording no confirmed booking would be just as unwarranted as recording a confirmed booking without further information.
03
Use a conclusion card that preserves uncertainty
The reusable card contains the original rule, its direction, supplied facts, supported conclusion, unsupported converse and missing information. For Nia, record valid pass follows under the rule. For Sol, record booking status unresolved and request a booking record if a decision requires it. Keep the uncertainty attached to the specific question instead of labelling the whole person or record unreliable. This template makes a small logical distinction operational: a required credential and an established reservation are separate fields, and evidence for one should not silently populate the other.